With Christmas approaching, new figures show that British businesses are increasingly worried about supply-chain disruption, while retailers are cutting back on stock orders at the fastest rate in more than 40 years.
The Christmas shopping season is just weeks away, but behind the scenes, British retailers, wholesalers and distributors have plenty to worry about.
New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published on 8 October, show that 48% of UK businesses with 10 or more employees are concerned about at least one supply-chain issue over the coming year.
That’s up from 31% in September 2025, with international conflict and shipping disruption among the most common concerns.
For businesses preparing for Black Friday and Christmas, the timing isn’t great. Retailers need products on shelves and ready to ship, but many are reluctant to spend too much on stock when consumer demand remains uncertain.
Retailers Are Cutting Back Ahead of Christmas
The latest figures from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) suggest retailers are already taking a cautious approach.
In September, retailers reduced orders from suppliers at the fastest rate since the CBI’s survey began in 1983. Retail sales also fell sharply, while online sales recorded their biggest annual decline in almost three years.
It’s an unusual position for businesses to find themselves in at this time of year. October is normally a busy month for getting Christmas stock into warehouses and preparing for the rush of November and December orders.
But this year, there’s a question hanging over those preparations. How much are customers actually going to spend?
For retailers, ordering too much could mean entering January with shelves full of unsold products. Ordering too little brings its own problems, especially if popular items sell out during the busiest shopping weeks.
Wholesalers and distributors are caught up in the uncertainty, too. When retailers reduce their orders or change delivery schedules, it affects how stock moves through the supply chain.
Rising Costs Are Putting Businesses Under Pressure
Businesses also have rising operating costs to think about.
The latest British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey, published on 7 October, found that 60% of surveyed businesses were concerned about inflation.
More than half, 52%, were worried about taxation, while 29% reported a fall in cash flow during the third quarter of 2026. For businesses importing products, shipping costs and delivery times add another layer of uncertainty.
The ONS found that 32% of businesses with at least 10 employees were concerned about the impact of international conflict on supply chains, while 21% were worried about shipping disruption.
Those concerns don’t necessarily mean Christmas deliveries will be delayed. But they do make planning more difficult, especially for businesses that depend on overseas suppliers.
And once the stock arrives in the UK, companies still need somewhere to keep it before it reaches customers.
Christmas Brings Its Own Warehouse Pressures
Even in a difficult trading year, the weeks between Black Friday and Christmas can create a sudden change in how much stock businesses need to handle.
Retailers may receive several deliveries close together, while wholesalers and distributors have to prepare orders for stores and online customers.
For businesses working with limited warehouse space, finding room for seasonal stock can become another expense.
A spokesperson for SFI, a UK logistics and warehousing company, said:
“Christmas puts a lot of pressure on warehouse operations because businesses are trying to get stock in place before the busiest shopping weeks”.
The difficult part this year is the uncertainty. Retailers don’t want to be caught without enough stock, but they also don’t want to spend money on warehouse space they won’t need once Christmas is over.
“For businesses that only need extra capacity for a few weeks, committing to another warehouse or taking on a long lease isn’t always practical.”
Temporary warehousing is one option for businesses dealing with seasonal deliveries.
Rather than paying for additional space throughout the year, retailers and distributors can use short-term storage when stock volumes exceed their usual capacity.
It can also help businesses handle deliveries that arrive earlier than expected or need to be held before being sent to stores.
An Uncertain End to the Trading Year
Despite the difficult figures, there are some reasons for businesses to be hopeful.
The BCC’s October survey found that 47% of firms expect their turnover to increase over the next 12 months, up from 44% in the previous quarter.
However, businesses remain reluctant to invest, with just 17% planning to increase investment over the next three months.
For retailers and distributors, that caution is likely to influence decisions about stock, staffing and warehouse space as Christmas approaches.
The SFI spokesperson added:
“Businesses are having to think carefully about how much stock they bring in and what it will cost to store and distribute it.
“Christmas can be a busy period, but nobody wants to be paying for empty warehouse space in February. Being able to adjust storage capacity as orders change can help businesses avoid unnecessary costs.”
Black Friday falls on 27 November this year, giving retailers just over six weeks to prepare for one of the biggest shopping events of the year.
Whether Christmas brings the sales boost businesses are hoping for remains to be seen. What is already clear is that retailers are heading into the final months of 2026 with some difficult stock decisions to make.
